Defending champions Royal Challengers Bengaluru were defeated by the Lucknow Super Giants in the most recent game of IPL 2026. But what does their second defeat in a row, coupled with the recent losing streak of the Punjab Kings, mean for the race to the playoffs this season?
Before this loss, RCB was among the favourites to finish in the top two. In nine games, they had six wins and 12 points. While they had lost their most recent game to the Gujarat Titans, Bengaluru had an easy path to the playoffs with matches against LSG and KKR left, two teams that are out of the playoff race.
But after the loss to Lucknow, the Royal Challengers now have six wins and 12 points in 10 matches. They stand in a similar place with several teams on the IPL 2026 table. Let’s discuss where we stand in the playoff race. Here are the IPL 2026 playoff calculations
IPL 2026 Playoff Calculations
We should clear some things first. At this moment, there are exactly six teams with a realistic shot of a top-four place. These teams, in order of their place in the points table, are SRH, PBKS, RCB, RR, GT, and CSK.
This comes with the assumption that a team needs at least 16 points to qualify for the playoffs. This means that the Delhi Capitals, currently seventh with eight points in 10 games, can still make it if they rally up and pop off from this point, but that is highly unlikely.
PBKS
With that being said, first up is the Punjab Kings, who for the longest time were at the top of the league table. By the time they had played seven matches, they were undefeated. Last year’s runner-ups had won six games, while the one against KKR was washed out. They had 13 points with half the league stage remaining.
However, since then, PBKS has lost three games in a row, suffering defeats against RR, GT, and SRH. This leaves them with 13 points in 10 games and right in the thick of the complexities of a playoff race. The Kings currently stand second on the points table with a net run rate of +0.571.
From this point, Punjab need to win at atleast two out of their four remaining matches. Their remaining games will see them take on DC, MI, and RCB at home while facing LSG away. In terms of their place on the league table, the Punjab Kings should win at least two of these matches against Mumbai and Lucknow. But with their current form, you never know.
Check Out: IPL 2026 Playoff Calculations
RCB
This brings us to RCB. We have already discussed that they have 12 points in 10 matches. They also have the best net run rate in the league of +1.234. This puts them third on the points table. They have also lost their two most recent games against GT and LSG.
Their four training matches will see them face MI and KKR at home, and PBKS and SRH away. They would be the favourites against two weaker sides at home, which is exactly what they need to reach 16 points with two matches remaining.
Although teams like Mumbai and Kolkata, which are already out of the race for the playoffs, have historically spoiled the chances of teams in the race by finding their lost form late in the league.
SRH
Next up, league leaders Sunrisers Hyderabad. The 2016 champions started this season poorly, winning only one out of their first four games. However, they then went on a five-game winning streak. They also won their most recent game against the Punjab Kings, putting them on 14 points in 11 games and at the top of the table with a solid net run rate of +0.737.
Sunrisers, unlike other teams here, have only three games left. They will face GT and CSK away and will take on RCB at home in their last league game.
While Hyderabad needs only one win to reach the 16-point mark, their remaining games are all against strong sides that are also in the race to the playoffs. With that in mind, SRH’s top-four finish, despite being in stellar form, is not confirmed.
RR
The Rajasthan Royals are next. With six wins, 12 points, and a net run rate of +0.510 in 10 games, they stand fourth on the points table. This is truly a baffling team. They started the season strong, but since then, they have lost games that they should have won and defeated teams that looked stronger than them. They were the first team to beat Punjab this season.
RR has four games remaining. They will face GT and LSG at home and will face DC and MI away. Realistically, they have the clearest shot at the playoffs. Out of their four games, three are against teams not in the playoff race. And while these teams can undergo a late-season resurgence, the Royals should make it to the playoffs. Although their see-saw form might be their downfall.
GT
The first team currently outside the top four, we will now discuss the Gujarat Titans’ chances of qualifying. They are the third team in the league with 12 points and six wins in 10 games. However, with a poor net run rate of -0.147, they stand last among the teams with the same points total as fifth.
The Titans are in the best form in the league, having won the last three of their games against strong teams like CSK, RCB, and GT.
GT has four games remaining this season. They will face RR and KKR away and will take on SRH and CSK at home. As you can see, Gujarat will face three teams that are also in the race to the playoffs, essentially making them four-point games.
*A four-point game is between two teams looking for the same spot. If one team wins that game, not only do they get two points, but the team that was also looking to qualify does not get two points, giving the winning side a four-point advantage.
But the net run rate of the Gujarat Titans is bound to hurt them at some point. It may not be enough for them to have just 16 points by the end of the league stage.
Check Out: IPL 2026 Playoff Calculations
CSK
The last team we will discuss today is the Chennai Super Kings. The five-time champions have an outside, yet realistic, chance of making it to the playoffs. They started this season with three defeats on the trot. But since then, they have won five out of their seven games. They are also on a two-match winning streak.
CSK is currently sixth on the points table with five wins, five losses, 10 points, and a net run rate of +0.151 in 10 matches.
The Super Kings have back-to-back games against LSG next on their docket before finishing the league stage with a home game against SRH and an away match against GT.
Chennai needs to win at atleast three matches to qualify for the playoffs. On paper, the two matches against bottom-of-the-table Lucknow Super Giants must be easy. But with their recent win against RCB, LSG is looking like a credible threat once again. Not only will the Chennai Super Kings have to beat the Super Giants twice, but also have to win one of their two games against other playoff contenders in the Titans and the Sunrisers.
We are heading towards an explosive climax of the IPL 2026 league stage with six teams still in the race for the playoffs. While none of these teams is assured a place in the top four, the fans will surely get a thrilling contest among some of the best cricket teams in the world.
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